Paul Ashworth: ‘Forecasting Is Difficult at the Best of Times, and This Is not the Best of Times’
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Overview
Paul Ashworth analyzes US economic turbulence, dissecting tariffs, policy uncertainty, and productivity, while challenging conventional assumptions on forecasting, inflation, and fiscal risk.
Takeaways
- •Paul Ashworth emphasizes scenario analysis over traditional forecasting due to immense policy uncertainty, citing shifting trade tariffs, legal challenges, and global market reactions under the Trump administration.
- •Ashworth asserts inflation poses a greater immediate risk than recession, attributing spikes to tariffs and policy but expecting resulting price surges to be transitory without entrenched secondary effects.
- •Weak productivity growth drives US wage stagnation, and Ashworth expresses optimism that AI may trigger a new wave of gains, but warns demographic and fiscal headwinds complicate the longer-term economic outlook.
Mind Map
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Chapters
- This is a chapter‘s title.The Fragility of Society and the Pendulum of ChangeThe Fragility of Society and the Pendulum of ChangeThe Fragility of Society and the Pendulum of ChangeThe Fragility of Society and the Pendulum of Change
- This is a chapter‘s title.The Fragility of Society and the Pendulum of ChangeThe Fragility of Society and the Pendulum of ChangeThe Fragility of Society and the Pendulum of ChangeThe Fragility of Society and the Pendulum of Change
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