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Overview
Economists and social media users debate viral and official recession indicators, from lipstick sales to complex economic models, assessing U.S. recession risks.
Takeaways
- •Claudia Sahm’s ‘Sahm Rule’ uses unemployment trends to identify recessions in real time, triggering discussions on implementing automatic government aid during downturns.
- •Economists have long relied on the yield curve as a forward-looking predictor for recessions, though recent exceptions illustrate limitations of even historically robust signals.
- •Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index aggregates ten key data points to provide a broad snapshot of economic health, using ‘3D’ analysis—duration, depth, diffusion—to gauge recession risk.
Mind Map
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Chapters
- This is a chapter‘s title.The Fragility of Society and the Pendulum of ChangeThe Fragility of Society and the Pendulum of ChangeThe Fragility of Society and the Pendulum of ChangeThe Fragility of Society and the Pendulum of Change
- This is a chapter‘s title.The Fragility of Society and the Pendulum of ChangeThe Fragility of Society and the Pendulum of ChangeThe Fragility of Society and the Pendulum of ChangeThe Fragility of Society and the Pendulum of Change
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